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Commonly, when sentiment gets extreme, its pretty straight forward, simple even. We get something like diagnoses A & B below: Diagnosis A: Bearish Simplex – Market gets killed, everyone gets negative and scared. We are all fearful of losses and so extreme consensus bearish sentiment can be harrowing and we use words like panic to…
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Despite the all time high this week on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, bearish sentiment actually rose 1.9% on the AAII Sentiment Survey to 38.5%, a full 8% above the long term average. Bearish individual investors seem impervious to the new highs or the most recent 14.6% rally from $SPX 1353 on 11/15. Extraordinary…
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I read with interest this piece entitled Dow 36,000 Is Attainable Again. With the Dow making new highs, Kevin Hassett, who wrote the book Dow 36,000 back in 1999, is back baby and it is all very exciting. (I kinda have a woody.) Furthermore, I believe this forecast, while it might appear crazy after…
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A quick note this morning about the new highs in the Dow and Transports. These levels affect the way people think and there are reflexive aspects around corporate decision making and investor risk appetite especially if prices hold and markets continue higher over the course of the year. Reflexivity, for those of you who…
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I just got an email asking me this question: Why are most people terrible investors? This is one of many answers… Most people are propelled by their own fears and fantasies while having no idea that this is the case. Freud called it the iceberg (or topographical) model. 90% of the iceberg is underwater.…
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This morning, we highlight a few of the more interesting studies from the StockTwits Charts Stream. 1. You Can’t Paint to the Sky Over the past several months, chartists have compared most everything in the universe to Apple ($AAPL) as its fall from grace has been spectactular and impossible to ignore. From Kimble superimposing…
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This afternoon, we highlight a few of the most interesting charts from the StockTwits stream. 1. Where’s the Volume? Christmas usually marks the period of the year when trading volume is at its very lightest. This makes sense as most trading desks thin for the season and as company related news lightens significantly. So…
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If you are having difficulty finding your trading groove, turn down the tv and listen to this instead.
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On February 20th, I will be a part of an amazing panel discussion moderated by Heidi Moore and joined by Josh Brown, Leigh Drogen and Michael Giles. We will be talking social finance and digital Wall Street. The event sold out fast and we have been getting a bunch of emails from people who…
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Getting a few questions about gold here so here’s a quick update. On a big down day in December (12/20), I posted this chart: And wrote: Sure, $GLD is getting shellacked again here, losing 8% in 6 weeks & now the 200dma. People are starting to whisper behind its back… Gold is the new $RIMM … Yet, within the…