•
Here is the link to the SIIA Panel discussion I pariticipated in moderated by @graubart with @harrisj, @pop17 on “Why Twitter Matters. This was a great bunch and a lot of fun.
•
A while back I wrote a post about how Twitter had created an optimal relational field, fertile soil upon which others might grow vertical communities by adding a bit more structure. By promoting an intuitive fairness, clarity in relationship dynamics and balance between control and freedom, it has managed to get the next phase…
•
In previous posts, I’ve begun introducing the cognitive theory of noise (CTN), a comprehensive model of market participant experience which will include a prescriptive component that will help traders decrease irrational behaviors and improve profitability. This is a big project and there will be many more posts that are theoretical in nature. But in…
•
Every Winter, we come down here to South Florida to gather in and around my parents house in Del Ray with my siblings and their families who are scattered around the country. Since arriving Thursday afternoon, I’ve sniffed about a bit and even made a few calls inquiring about residential properties specifically in Boca…
•
Most simply formulated, it is a paradox – the paradox of behavior which is at one and the same time self-perpetuating and self-defeating! …Common sense holds that a normal, sensible man, or even a beast to the limits of his intelligence, will weigh and balance the consequences of his acts: if the net effect…
•
“Croesesus crossing the Halys will destroy a great empire” – Delphic Oracle, quoted in Niederhoffer’s Education of a Speculator The beauty of the above quote is that it sounds great but never really specifies which empire will fall. *** While Victor Niederhoffer might ultimately be remembered for blowing up spectacularly on multiple occasions, he…
•
When we were in grad school, my wife (then girlfriend) was involved in research where they would use music to induce mood states including sadness and elation over short periods of time. Then, once they had induced mood, they would ask a bunch of questions about cognitions or whatever. We used to laugh about…
•
Over on StockTwits this morning I am observing a bunch of comments from traders saying that they “sold this rally too soon.” This is a significant collective expression. There are two important psychological processes occurring here which I will briefly outline for the sake of awareness raising among traders. These are loss aversion and…
•
(This was originally published on Real Money on 03/06/09 @ 11:32PM EST) I am reading with interest the comments here on the Real Money Columnist Conversation regarding the psychology of the market now. I think that the tension here is a reflection of the tension among market participants in general. Traders have been in…
•
Before I get into the heart of a comprehensive model of market participant behavior, I would like to put the concept of prescription into context amid economic theory. Traditional economists offer normative theories. That is, they model how markets ought to behave in a world where all the participants are rational actors and always…